Can Iga Swiatek challenge Aryna Sabalenka for 2025 year-end No 1 ranking?

Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek have proven to be the two leading WTA stars of this decade so far, and 2025 has brought both women further success.

The season has proven to be the best of Sabalenka’s career to date, capped off by her recent US Open triumph, while Swiatek sealed a first Wimbledon title to make her one of just eight women to complete the Surface Slam.

Both women have had lengthy spells as the world No 1, with Sabalenka currently holding off Swiatek in the race to sit at the top of the WTA Rankings.

However, the remaining few months of 2025 promise to prove hugely intriguing in the race to finish 2025 as the year-end No 1.

As it stands
Both Sabalenka and Swiatek achieved the exact same US Open results as they did in 2024, with the Belarusian defending her title, and the Pole falling in the last eight.

That means that the world No 1 remains on 11,225 points in the WTA Rankings, with Swiatek remaining on 7,933 points — 3,292 points behind as the world No 2.

Sabalenka is also ahead in the WTA Race to Riyadh, which monitors only points won in 2025, though her lead is not quite as emphatic as it is in the official rankings.

She has amassed 9,610 points across the season to date, with Swiatek on 7,533 points for 2025.

The Pole only has 400 more points to defend until the end of the year, which could open the door for her.

What points do they have to defend?
Twelve months ago, Swiatek withdrew from the WTA 500 Korea Open in Seoul, before pulling out of the two WTA 1000 events held in the Asia swing; the China Open and the Wuhan Open.

We now know that this was due to a provisional suspension following a failed drugs test at the Cincinnati Open in 2024, with the Pole’s provisional ban lifted ahead of the WTA Finals.

Swiatek picked up 200 points each for her two group stage match wins, and collected 400 total points after failing to make it out of the round-robin stage.

That was the only event she played post-US Open last season, with Sabalenka picking up significantly more points.

Sabalenka earned 215 points for reaching the last eight of the China Open, and then 1,000 points for successfully defending her title in Wuhan.

Much like the Pole, Sabalenka then picked up 400 points at the WTA Finals, giving her 1,615 points to defend across the season — 1,215 more than Swiatek.

Where will they play?
Both have already secured their places at the WTA Finals in Riyadh, so, barring injury, we know they will be in action at the Year-End Championships in November.

And, they have also both committed to the WTA 1000 event in Beijing, with Swiatek back after her provisional suspension in 2024 — she lifted the title in 2023 — and Sabalenka looking to win the event for the first time.

It is also likely that both will be in Wuhan, with the world No 1 looking for a staggering fourth straight title, and Swiatek in line to finally make her event debut.

However, the world No 2 is also still in line to be in Korea Open action next week, with 500 points up for grabs for the eventual champion.

Can Swiatek do it?
Mathematically, it is more than possible for Swiatek to replace Sabalenka as the No 1 by the time the season is over.

First and foremost, she has a history of doing exactly that, with her 2023 WTA Finals triumph seeing her replace Sabalenka after the Belarusian’s first stint atop the WTA Rankings.

However, the sheer lack of points that she has to defend ahead of the WTA Finals works in her favour, with the potential to win 2,500 points there for the 24-year-old.

But, she would likely need Sabalenka to suffer some early exits, which is not too likely considering her consistency in 2025.

The Belarusian is still in pole position for now, but the race to year-end No 1 promises to be fascinating.