Preview: Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula – prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far.
Aryna Sabalenka faces fairytale killer Jessica Pegula in Saturday’s Miami Open women’s final, a rematch of last year’s US Open decider.
Pegula, who lost the title match at Flushing Meadows, has already ended Emma Raducanu’s resurgent run and halted Alexandra Eala’s breathtakingly stunning performance in Florida, is aiming to avenge last year’s loss in New York at the top seed’s expense.
When Sabalenka plays as well as she did in Thursday’s semi-final against Jasmine Paolini, she is nearly unstoppable, as the Italian discovered when the top seed stormed into the championship match with a 6-2, 6-2 win.
Paolini, who hit 19 winners to nine unforced errors, played at a commendable level, but she was significantly overpowered by the world No. 1, whose 31 winners to just 12 unforced errors highlighted how effectively she executed while minimising mistakes.
Now in her fourth title match of 2025, Sabalenka is motivated to end a two-match losing streak at the final hurdle following painful defeats in Melbourne, where she sought an Australian Open three-peat, and Indian Wells, where Mirra Andreeva upset the top seed in the first leg of the Sunshine Swing a fortnight ago.
Sabalenka had never reached beyond the quarter-finals in Miami in six main draw appearances until this year but has broken new ground to advance to the title match in the Florida-based event.
With 22 wins in 2025, more than anyone on the women’s tour this season, the most consistent hard-court player aims for a 23rd to inflict another painful loss on Pegula on home soil.
The American, who has secured two fewer victories than the Belarusian this year, needed three sets to end Eala’s fairytale run in Miami, securing a hard-fought 7-6[3], 5-7, 6-3 victory in two hours and 26 minutes.
The outcome could have gone the other way had Pegula not rallied from 5-2 down in the opening set to force a tie-break; however, the 31-year-old could not shake off the 19-year-old Filipina in set two, despite leading 3-1 and serving to take a 4-1 lead in the second.
The result of Thursday’s late-night victory means that the American player, into her third final of 2025 following runs in Adelaide and Austin, has been forced into lengthy matches on three occasions in Miami; she defeated Anna Kalinskaya in two hours and 16 minutes, Raducanu in two hours and 25 minutes and Eala in about the same time.
In contrast, her top-ranked opponent’s longest match came in the quarter-final victory over Qinwen Zheng in one hour and 36 minutes, amplifying Pegula’s mileage disadvantage heading into the Miami final.
The seven-time WTA champion and three-time victor at 1000-level events certainly appeared physically compromised after ousting Eala, even if the adrenaline of the moment did not prevent the American from bellowing in ecstasy after finally receiving her just rewards following two previous semi-final setbacks in Florida.
Aiming for one final push in Saturday’s decider, the American hopes that a day off to recuperate will be beneficial against the in-form Belarusian aspiring for her 19th WTA crown and eighth at 1000-level events.