The clay season is underway and, while there are plenty of big events still to come, it is hard not to already have one eye on the French Open.
Action at Roland Garros begins in the final week of May, and before then, several of the leading stars of the ATP Tour will be looking to get themselves into the best position possible.
That largely involves trying to seal the best seeding and, while Jannik Sinner looks set to be the top seed, things look a little up in the air elsewhere.
Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev are set to battle it out to try and seal the second seeding ahead of Paris, while there is also a crucial battle between world No 4 Taylor Fritz and No 5 Novak Djokovic.
Whether Djokovic is a top-four seed or not could have a significant effect on his hopes of winning a 25th Grand Slam singles title; here, we look at how things could pan out over the coming weeks.
Why is a top-four seeding important?
For both Djokovic and Fritz’s hopes at Roland Garros, avoiding a meeting against the likes of Sinner, Alcaraz, and Zverev until the semi-final stage will likely be key.
That is where being the fourth seed will provide a huge advantage, as it will ensure that that player – whoever it may prove to be – will be the highest-ranked player in their quarter.
The fourth seed cannot face one of the top three until at least the semi-final stage, while two of the top three players will be on the other side of the draw.
Whoever ends up being the fifth seed will be in the same quarter as one of the top four seeds, meaning they risk meeting one of Sinner, Alcaraz, and Zverev as early as the last eight.
As it stands
As of Monday’s ATP Rankings update, Fritz has a solid cushion as the world No 4 – with Djokovic having lost some ground to the American.
Djokovic lost in round two of the Monte Carlo Masters last week, meaning he failed to match his semi-final showing from 2025, and has therefore dropped 390 ranking points.
In contrast, Fritz, who withdrew from the event due to injury, only dropped 10 ranking points he was defending after he lost in the second round 12 months ago.
Fritz currently sits on 5,280 ranking points, while Djokovic is 1,160 adrift on 4,120 points.
Djokovic’s opportunity
Chasing down Fritz will not be easy, but there is one significant advantage that Djokovic currently has.
The Serbian is defending very few ranking points in the run-up to Roland Garros, with the seedings set to be sorted following the conclusion of the Italian Open – one week before the second major of 2024.
Djokovic missed the ATP 1000 event in Madrid last year and then lost in the third round of the Italian Open in Rome, earning just 50 points.
With the 24-time Grand Slam champion currently set to compete at both events this spring, that potentially hands him a sizeable opportunity to boost his top-four hopes.
And, his hopes will also be boosted because Fritz has significantly more ranking points to defend than him.
The American embarked on a strong clay swing in 2024, with one highlight being a run to the final at the Munich Open in Germany.
However, due to the same abdominal injury that ruled him out of Monte Carlo, Fritz is not in Munich in 2025 – and will drop 165 points as a result.
Next Monday, Fritz will have 5,115 points to his name, decreasing the cushion he has over Djokovic ever so slightly to 995 points.
After Munich, the world No 4 then has 400 semi-final points to defend in Madrid, and 200 quarter-final points in Rome; take those away, and he has 4,515 to his name.
In contrast, Djokovic will only drop to 4,070 with his Rome points removed, decreasing the gap between the two to just 445 points.
While that is still a slight cushion, and the chance of the Fritz dropping all those points is unlikely, the door may be open for Djokovic considering his rival’s ongoing injury concerns.
A strong run in just one of Madrid or Rome could prove enough for the 24-time Grand Slam winner to seal a top-four seeding at the second major of the year.